Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.339407 2.746385 3.198339 3.736777 4.360105 5.058329 5.899078
2025-11-02 1.594762 2.104123 2.733396 3.564984 4.631831 5.951059 7.702360
2025-11-09 1.134383 1.652918 2.353832 3.363915 4.774520 6.665578 9.382261
2025-11-16 0.873884 1.386733 2.135313 3.296184 5.036938 7.532611 11.359097
2025-11-23 0.700545 1.198758 1.976792 3.263102 5.314522 8.430161 13.480224
2025-11-30 0.609405 1.114423 1.951173 3.413850 5.874152 9.800489 16.473972
2025-12-07 0.515462 1.003214 1.857263 3.429436 6.207052 10.845666 19.078735
2025-12-14 0.437187 0.902181 1.759584 3.415784 6.477922 11.809887 21.656679
2025-12-21 0.376818 0.821623 1.682488 3.421674 6.775592 12.845031 24.469763
2025-12-28 0.357402 0.818009 1.748130 3.702307 7.611317 14.925038 29.379915
2026-01-04 0.320205 0.769537 1.716376 3.785055 8.076479 16.375100 33.292900
2026-01-11 0.290106 0.730418 1.696569 3.887042 8.589596 17.969213 37.653152
2026-01-18 0.255257 0.674762 1.634936 3.897180 8.929067 19.290822 41.692816
2026-01-25 0.215977 0.600398 1.519324 3.771388 8.965112 20.012393 44.627467
2026-02-01 0.179011 0.523578 1.384001 3.577535 8.821966 20.341824 46.787117
2026-02-08 0.154966 0.475339 1.308607 3.512198 8.959300 21.284309 50.363881
2026-02-15 0.136032 0.436872 1.250595 3.479375 9.166802 22.403333 54.455216
2026-02-22 0.127909 0.427861 1.267751 3.640401 9.866261 24.717240 61.502054
2026-03-01 0.114948 0.401263 1.232462 3.657276 10.206724 26.232349 66.864111
2026-03-08 0.102498 0.373345 1.188369 3.642881 10.464395 27.578747 71.975743
2026-03-15 0.092244 0.350164 1.153728 3.649181 10.777322 29.095138 77.665696
2026-03-22 0.091445 0.359049 1.216707 3.947392 11.922566 32.817825 89.208206
2026-03-29 0.084789 0.345765 1.209083 4.035310 12.495898 35.144367 97.471214